Early Look

Wednesday, October 9, 2024

Another day, another incredible stock market rally on Tuesday as major averages climbed all day, closing near the highs as the S&P 500 remains about 10 points from its all-time record, the Dow closed back above 42,000, and the tech heavy Nasdaq jumped 1.4% or over 250 points led by big gains in NVDA, AAPL, AMZN, META, MSFT, NFLX, and TSLA as mega cap was in focus. The Smallcap Russell 2000 lagged given the recent mood change in interest rates, with market expectations reduced for aggressive cuts after the recent round of better jobs data (fed fund futures looking for two 25-bps cuts in Nov and Dec vs. 75 total cuts by end of 2024 prior). Treasury yields and the dollar have climbed over the last week and gold off its recent record highs. Markets still awaiting key CPI and PPI inflation data points tomorrow and Friday.

In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index gained 340 points to 39,277, the Shanghai Index tumbled -230 points or 6.62% to 3,258, and the Hang Seng Index slid -289 points to 20,637. In Europe, the German DAX is up 34 points to 19,101, while the FTSE 100 is up 30 points to 8,221. The U.S. dollar is on track for its best run in more than two years rising for an eighth straight day, set for its longest winning streak since April 2022. The other big story is more destruction for the South as Hurricane Milton churned toward western Florida as a potentially lethal Category 5 storm. Milton is on track to make landfall late Wednesday night or early Thursday local time. Later today, markets will watch the minutes of the Sept. 17-18 FOMC meeting at 2:00 PM which will reveal the extent of consensus around the 50-bps move that jump started the rate-cut cycle.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 126.13 points, or 0.30%, to 42,080.37.
• The Nasdaq Composite jumped 259.01 points, or 1.45%, to 18,182.92.
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 1.89 points, or 0.09% to 2,194.98.

• 8:00 AM ET                  Fed’s Bostic Gives Welcome Remarks
• 9:15 AM ET                  Fed’s Logan Speaks at Houston Energy Conference
• 10:00 AM ET                Wholesale Inventory M/M for August
• 10:30 AM ET                Fed’s Goolsbee Gives Opening Remarks at Payments Conference
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $39B in 10-year notes
• 2:00 PM ET FOMC Meeting Minutes from September Meeting
• 6:00 PM ET                   Fed’s Daly Speaks in Moderated Conversation

• Earnings After the Close: APLD AZZ BSET ETWO

• JP Morgan Software Forum, 10/7-10/9, in Napa
• Roth MKM Annual Healthcare Opportunities Conference, 10/9 in New York
• Zoomtopia Conference, 10/9-10/10
• China M2 Money Supply got September

• Home Depot (HD) and Lowe’s (LOW) both upgraded to Buy from Hold at Loop Capital.
• KinderCare Learning (KLC) 24M share IPO priced at $24.00.
• Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup and raised tgt to $30.
• Performance Food (PFGC) sees FY25 net sales to be in a range of approximately $62.5B-$63.5B compared to the prior expectation for net sales $60B-$61B and now expects Adjusted EBITDA to be in a $1.7B-$1.8B range compared to the prior expectation of a $1.6B-$1.7B range as includes expected business results for Cheney Brothers.

• Rio Tinto (RIO) and Arcadium Lithium (ALTM) announced a definitive agreement under which Rio Tinto will acquire Arcadium in an all-cash transaction for $5.85 per share. The transaction values Arcadium’s diluted share capital at approximately $6.7B.
• Delek Logistics (DKL) 3.85M share Spot Secondary priced at $39.00.
• Valero (VLO) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo.
• Woodside announced has completed the acquisition of Tellurian (TELL) and its US Gulf Coast Driftwood LNG development opportunity. Woodside has acquired all issued and outstanding Tellurian common stock for approximately $900M cash, or $1.00 per share.
• Worthington (WOR) Board of directors announced Joseph Hayek as the company’s next president and chief executive officer, or CEO, effective November 1 as Andy Rose to retire

• Cohen & Steers, Inc. (CNS) preliminary assets under management of $91.8 billion as of September 30, 2024, an increase of $3.7 billion from assets under management of $88.1 billion at August 31, 2024. The increase was due to market appreciation of $2.6 billion and net inflows of $1.3 billion, partially offset by distributions of $286 million.
• Reddit (RDDT) was initiated at Buy and $90 target price at Jefferies saying the co is combining AI-driven product enhancements with a robust archive of contextual content to spur trial and engagement, resulting in recent user growth accelerating to the highest level in 2+ years.
• Saratoga Investment Corp (SAR) said Q2 assets under management $1.04B; Q2 net asset value per share $27.07.
• Verisk (VRSK) estimates industry insured losses due to wind, storm surge and hurricane precipitation induced flood in the U.S. for Hurricane Helene will range between $6B-$11B.

• Scholar Rock (SRRK) 10.265M share Secondary priced at $28.25.

• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) posted a better-than-expected 39% rise in quarterly revenue, as reported Sept sales of NT$759.7 billion ($23.6 billion), versus the average projection for NT$748 billion. Taiwan’s largest company will disclose its full results next Thursday.
• Astera Labs (ALAB) announced a new portfolio of fabric switches, including the industry’s first PCIe 6 switch, built from the ground up for demanding AI workloads in accelerated computing platforms deployed at cloud-scale.
• ZETA Global (ZETA) said to acquire LiveIntent in a deal valued at $250M, $77.5M in cash, $172.5M in stock; ZETA also reaffirms Q3 2024 guidance with revenue of at least $255M.