Early Look

Monday, October 13, 2025

U.S. futures are rebounding after major U.S. indexes saw their worst declines since April on Friday amid tariff concerns. President Trump said the US would impose a 100% additional tariff on Chinese goods, as well as export controls on “any and all critical software” beginning Nov. 1, hours after threatening to cancel an upcoming meeting with the country’s leader, Xi Jinping this past week. Stock futures got a bounce Sunday after President Trump said on his Truth Social media platform Sunday, “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. He doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!! President DJT“.  The President’s comments came after China clarified earlier this weekend their “export controls” on rare earths. In their response, China said the new controls are NOT a full export ban and applications that “meet regulations” will be approved.

Stocks closed on the lows last Friday, capping one of the worst weeks for the S&P since May. For the week, the S&P 500 fell -2.43%, the Nasdaq declined -2.53%, and the Dow fell -2.73%. S&P 500 marks biggest weekly % loss since May, Nasdaq registers biggest weekly % loss since April. For the week, Russell 2000 small cap index falls -3.29% for biggest weekly loss since week beginning July 28. Reminder today is Columbus day, while the U.S. bond market is closed Oct. 13, 2025, the U.S. stock market is open full day. Oil prices rebounded as the Trump administration signaled openness to a trade deal with China, easing fears of escalating tensions between the world’s two largest crude consumers.

Beyond trade headlines, Wall Street is bracing for a busy and uncertain week ahead. The federal government shutdown continues into another week (Day 13), raising the risk that many federal workers could miss their Oct. 15 paycheck if a funding deal isn’t reached. This week also kicks off the start of earnings season, dominated by big banks/financials (JPM, C, WFC, GS on Tuesday, BAC, MS, SYF, PNC Wednesday and SCHW, USB, KEY, BK, TRV Thursday) along with JNJ, UAL, CSX and ASML. In stocks, news, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) said it is launching a 10-year plan to finance and take stakes in companies it deems critical to U.S. national security. The bank said it would invest up $10 billion into companies in defense and aerospace, tech such as AI and quantum computing, energy tech such as batteries and supply chain and advanced manufacturing.

Crypto was the story this weekend as Bitcoin, which had hit an all-time high above $126,000 earlier in the week, plunged on Friday to trade below $110,000 after President Trump said he would impose an additional 100% tariff on China and export controls on software. The sudden downturn wiped out more than $19 billion in leveraged positions and forced the liquidation of over 1.6 million traders within 24 hours, according to Coinglass data. Over $7 billion of that occurred within just one hour.

In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index tumbled -491 points to 48,088, the Shanghai Index slipped -7 points to 3,889, and the Hang Seng Index declined -400 points to 25,889. In Europe, the German DAX is up 128 points to 24,370, while the FTSE 100 is up 8 points to 9,435. The Japanese yen is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.6% against the greenback while the Swiss franc is not far behind. December gold prices surge 2.39% or $96 to $4,096.50 an ounce

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -878.82 points, or 1.90%, to 45,479.60
• The Nasdaq Composite plunged -820.20 points, or 3.56%, to 22,204.43
• The Russell 2000 Index tumbled -74.25 points, or 3.01% to 2,394.59

• Earnings After the Close: None

• Deutsche Bank 33rd Annual Leveraged Finance Conference, 10/13-10/15, in Austin, Texas
• Goldman Sachs Global Metals and Mining Conference, 10/14-10/15, in London
• Oracle AI World 2025 user conference, 10/13-10/16

• India’s annual retail inflation slowed to 1.54% in September from 2.07% in August, government data showed on Monday. A Reuters poll had projected retail inflation at 1.7%.
• Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson said that a bear-case scenario could see the S&P 500 sink as much as 11% if trade tensions between the US and China aren’t resolved before a November deadline.

• The Pentagon said it plans to purchase up to $1 billion in critical minerals, including cobalt, antimony, and tantalum, to strengthen US stockpiles amid growing geopolitical tensions and China’s new export controls on rare earths and other key materials.
• U.S. WTI crude oil futures tumbled -$2.61 or 4.24% to settle at $58.90 per barrel on Friday (first time below $60 since May and -3.25% this week) and Brent crude fell -$2.40 or 3.82% to settle at $62.73 per barrel as the Israel-Hamas ceasefire reduces geopolitical risk premium and President Trump steps up trade tensions, threatening higher tariffs.

• Galaxy Digital (GLXY) announced a $460M strategic investment from one of the world’s leading asset managers. The deal includes 9.03M shares from Galaxy and 3.75M shares from executives (incl. CEO) at $36 per share. Proceeds will fund corporate initiatives and the Helios data center buildout (133MW Phase 1 by 2026), expanding Galaxy’s AI + digital infra footprint.”
• Jefferies Financial (JEF) shares fell after Morgan Stanley’s (MS) asset-management business asked to redeem some money it invested in a Jefferies fund with large exposure to the trade debt of bankrupt auto-parts supplier First Brands Group, Bloomberg reported citing people. https://tinyurl.com/4xmvws64
• JPMorgan (JPM) is launching a $1.5 trillion financing initiative over the next decade to back industries vital to U.S. national security and economic independence. As part of the effort, JPM will make direct equity investments of up to $10 billion in U.S. companies and expand its banker network. https://tinyurl.com/he4njc9s

• Cadence Design (CDNS) and Synopsys (SNPS) shares looking lower after President Trump said the US will “impose export controls on any and all critical software” to China starting November 1.
• Intel (INTC) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at bank America with an unchanged price target of $34 saying the recent $80B jump in Intel’s market cap more than reflects its improved balance sheet and external foundry potential, while the competitive outlook remains challenged.
• Palo Alto Networks (PANW) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BTIG with a $248 price target.
• Texas Instruments (TXN) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Bank America with a $190 price target as believes the turmoil caused by global tariffs could keep the lid on any near- to medium-term demand improvement in the industrial economy
• Warner Bros. (WBD) rejected Paramount Skydance’s (PSKY) initial takeover offer of around $20 per share for being too low, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter. Paramount has several options to continue pursuing Warner Bros., including boosting its bid, going directly to shareholders, or find additional backing through a financial partner https://tinyurl.com/ytfk848r