Early Look

Monday, October 20, 2025

U.S. futures are edging higher following a solid rebound last Friday that pushed major averages higher for the week, as trade tensions appeared to have eased over the weekend, buoying markets with renewed hopes for a tariff truce. The moderation began with a Saturday call between Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, the nation’s economic czar. Japan’s Nikkei hit a new all-time high aided by Japan’s LDP-Innovation Party coalition deal. while European stocks also recovered from a wobble at the end of last week. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index surged 1,603 points or 3.37% to settle at 49,185, the Shanghai Index rose 24 points to 3,863, and the Hang Seng Index jumped 611 points to 25,858. In Europe, the German DAX is up 300 points to 24,125, while the FTSE 100 rises 35 points to 9,390. Wall Street is waking up to technical issues as Internet users across the globe faced disruptions due to a widespread outage of websites and apps using Amazon Web Services. The government shutdown also rolls into its 4^th week.

Gold and silver continued to rally this past week, despite a Friday tumble, amid renewed trade tensions between the world’s top economies. Gold posted its 9th straight week of gains despite Friday’s -1.8% decline, pulling back from record highs near $4,400. The U.S. dollar posting its worst week in more than two months on expectations of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts coupled with emerging credit risks in the US banking sector weighed on the greenback and helped boost metals.

Events to watch for this week: Friday, the shutdown-delayed US CPI report for September is due for release after the BLS shuffled back some employees back to the office since the Social Security Administration needs the data to calculate adjustments to annual cost of living benefits. Headline CPI is expected to rise to 3.1% YoY from 2.9% given boosts from food and energy. Earnings picking up this week with notable earnings from Coca Cola (KO), GM, Netflix (NFLX), chip maker Texas Instruments (TXN) and defense companies Lockheed (LMT) and Northrop Grumman (NOC) on Tuesday and results from tesla (TSLA), IBM, AT&T (T) and Southwest (LUV) on Wednesday.

A quick summary to last week’s trading action, which ended with major averages higher: the S&P 500 gained 1.7%, the Nasdaq climbed 2.14%, and the Dow climbed 1.56%), gold hits a record high, President Trump takes away the China tariff threat (kind of) but then says the US will stop buying their cooking oil; China responds with more amicable words of wanting to work together to create a deal with the US then midweek, Fed Chairman Powell signals that the Fed is going stop QT by the end of the year. The reaction, markets get within less than 1% of ATH on Monday, then fall 3% throughout the week, then recover to now being less than 2% away from ATHs.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 238.37 points, or 0.52%, to 46,190.61
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 117.44 points, or 0.52%, to 22,679.97
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -14.84 points, or 0.60% to 2,452.17

• Earnings After the Close: AGNC BOKF CADE CCK FLXS HBCP PFBC RBB RLI SFBS STLD WASH WRB WTFC ZION

• China retail sales growth slowed more noticeably to 3.0% YoY from 3.4% YoY in August. On a seasonally adjusted basis, retail sales fell by 0.18% MoM, its second on-month contraction in the last quarter.
• China Industrial production growth in contrast quickened to 6.5% YoY, compared with 5.2% YoY in the preceding month. Seasonally adjusted, industrial output rose by 0.64% MoM or its fastest since February, due mainly to the robust rise in value-added in the automobile industry, which was up 16% YoY during the month.
• In Japan, the national broadcaster NHK reported that the LDP has reached a deal with Ishin to form a coalition. Combined, the two parties hold 231 seats in the lower house of the Diet, just two seats shy of a majority.
• S&P Global Ratings downgraded France rating to A+ from AA-, saying that the country’s budget uncertainty “remains elevated” despite the submission of a 2025 draft budget.
• Israel launched a series of strikes in Gaza on Sunday in response to attacks on its forces, the military said, in the latest and most serious test of this month’s U.S.-brokered ceasefire. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he had ordered the military to respond forcefully to what he described as Hamas’ violations of the ceasefire

• Gucci owner Kering (PPRUY) said it has agreed to sell its beauty business to L’Oreal (LRLCY) for $4.66 billion, as new CEO Luca de Meo moves to tackle the luxury group’s high debt and refocus on its core fashion business.
• Rivian (RIVN) was downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Mizuho and cut tgt to $10 from $14 citing slowing electric vehicle demand as Inflation Reduction Act credits expire and sees headwinds in 2026 for Rivian due to with softer auto sales in North America and China risks.
• WW International (WW) announced a collaboration with Amazon (AMZN) Pharmacy. Through this collaboration, Weightwatchers Clinic members will gain access to real-time medication availability, automatic coupon savings, and fast, reliable home delivery for weight management medications

• Quanta Services Inc. (PWR), which builds and maintains infrastructure for utilities and data centers, is becoming one of Wall Street’s quiet winners, according to Barron’s noting, surging electricity demand from AI has fueled record growth and a $36 billion backlog project backlog. The company’s dominance in US infrastructure projects gives it pricing power even as its stock trades at a premium.
• The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers will immediately pause over $11B in projects and consider canceling them on account of the ongoing government shutdown, the White House’s budget chief Russell Vought has announced.

• Celcuity Inc. (CELC) said it has successfully recruited enough breast-cancer patients with the PIK3CA mutation to complete Phase 3 clinical trials of a novel treatment that incorporates the drug gedatolisib. It also released promising findings from trials on patients with this mutation.
• Genmab’s (GMAB) rinatabart sesutecan (Rina-S) showed a 50.0% confirmed objective response rate including two complete responses in a median study follow-up at one year, the Danish biotech said.
• Ideaya Biosciences (IDYA) announced the first reported median overall survival results from their Phase 1/2 clinical trial evaluating darovasertib, the company’s investigational oral protein kinase C inhibitor, in combination with Pfizer’s (PFE) crizotinib1, a c-MET inhibitor, as a first-line treatment for patients with metastatic uveal melanoma
• Roche Holding Ag’s (RHHBY) experimental drug Giredestrant reduced the risk of breast cancer worsening by almost two thirds in some patients with an advanced form of the disease. Patients in the trial were given Roche’s oral medicine, combined with the immunosuppressant everolimus.
• Summit Therapeutics Inc. (SMMT) announced results from the Phase III HARMONi-6 trial, conducted in China and sponsored by our partner, Akeso, Inc. at the ESMO conference saying Ivonescimab in combo with chemotherapy is the first known regimen to achieve a clinically meaningful benefit over an anti-PD-(L)1 antibody combined with chemotherapy in a phase iii clinical trial in 1L NSCLC: median PFS of 11.14 months vs. 6.90 months, respectively, for patients receiving ivonescimab plus chemotherapy vs. Tislelizumab.

• Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Q3 adj EPS loss (-$0.45), in-line with consensus and revs $4.7B vs. est. $4.9B; guided expectations for the full-year 2025 capex of about $525M vs. prior view of $600 million and selling, general and administrative expenses of approximately $550 million, from its previous expectation of $575M.

• Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone 17 series outperformed its predecessor in early sales in China and the United States, research firm Counterpoint said on Monday. The newer models outsold the iPhone 16 series by 14% during their first 10 days of availability in the two countries, Counterpoint said in a report.
• Arrow Electronics (ARW) said its affiliates would be removed from a U.S. Commerce Department blacklist that targeted firms that the U.S. says provided illicit support to Iran’s military and its proxies.