Morning Preview: October 30, 2025

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Early Look

Thursday, October 30, 2025

Futures

Up/Down

%

Last

Dow

-141.00

0.30%

47,654

S&P 500

-4.25

0.07%

6,918

Nasdaq

-24.50

0.09%

26,238

 

 

US futures are down slightly after closing mixed on Wednesday, as investors digest a slew of news/catalysts overnight and brace for another round of earnings today. Overnight shares of META and MSFT declined after earnings/guidance/capex outlooks, while GOOGL shares jumped on results in the Nasdaq. Yesterday the Fed cut rates by 25-bps, but Chairman Powell raised the prospect that another rate cut in December in not a foregone conclusion given the lack of economic data due the Federal government into its 30th day of shutdown. The European Central Bank is holding its policy meeting this morning, with no change expected. Lastly, overnight, President Trump and Chinese leader Xi met in South Korea to hash out some trade talking points (below), coming to some agreements, but failed to meet high expectations on Wall Street thus far. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rose 17 points to 51,325, the Shanghai Index fell -29 points to 3,986, and the Hang Seng Index dropped -63 points to 26,282. In Europe, the German DAX is down -34 points to 24,090, while the FTSE 100 is down -44 points to 9,711. Yesterday The S&P 500 ended the day flat. Dow was down 0.2%, or 74 points, snapping its four-day winning streak. The tech-heavy Nasdaq managed to eke out a gain of 0.6%.

 

Overnight, President Trump said he had agreed with President Xi Jinping to trim tariffs on China in exchange for Beijing cracking down on the illicit fentanyl trade, resuming U.S. soybean purchases and keeping rare earths exports flowing. Trump’s met face-to-face talks with Xi for the first time since 2019 last night. Trump said tariffs on Chinese imports would be cut to 47% from 57%, by halving to 10% the rate of tariffs related to trade in fentanyl precursor drugs. China agreed to pause export controls unveiled this month on rare earths, elements with vital roles in cars, planes and weapons that have become Beijing’s most potent source of leverage in its trade war with the United States. They also agreed to pause tit-for-tat port fees on shipping. China will begin the process of purchasing U.S. energy, Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Thursday. Among major U.S. trading partners, only Brazil and India are still subject to higher tariffs.

 

The stock market’s rally took a pause on Wednesday after four straight days of gains as Wall Street reassessed its predictions on interest-rate cuts after the FOMC cut rates by 25-bps as expected, but Chairman Powell said “a further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion. Far from it.” While equities ended mostly lower, Treasuries sold off across the board, with the 10-year yield rising 7.4bps to 4.056%. The tech heavy Nasdaq Comp managed a small gain, extending its win streak to 5 days, led by another rally on semiconductors as NVDA pushed to new record highs as investors add to AI related stocks at every turn.

 

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

  • The S&P 500 Index ended little changed, -0.30 points, or 0.00%, to 6,890.59
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -74.37 points, or 0.16%, to 47,632.00
  • The Nasdaq Composite gained 130.98 points, or 0.55%, to 23,958.47
  • The Russell 2000 Index declined -21.86 points, or 0.87% to 2,484.79

Economic Calendar for Today

  • 8:30 AM ET                  Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Q3 advance
  • 8:30 AM ET GDP Consumer Spending, Q3 advance
  • 8:30 AM ET GDP Price Deflator, Q3 advance
  • 8:30 AM ET PCE Prices advance for Q3
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Core-PCE Prices advance for Q3
  • 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

Earnings Calendar:

  • Earnings Before the Open: AAP ABEV AGIO ALGM ALNY AME AMP AMRX APG APLS APTV ARGX BAND BAX BDC BIIB BLDR BMY BTU BUD BWA CAH CCCS CFR CI CMCO CMCSA CMLS CMS CNX COMM CQP CRAI CROX CSW CWK CWT DBRG DINO DTE DTM EL EME ENTG EPD EXP FCFS FFWM FLWS FOXA FSS GBLI GEL HGV HII HSY HWM IART ICE IDA IDCC INSM IP ITRI JHG K KBR KMB LAUR LBTYA LCII LECO LHX LKQ LLY LNC LNG LXP MA MBUU MGY MO MPX MRK MYE NMRK NSIT NVCR OMCL OPCH OSIS OWL PBF PRM PWR QSR RBLX RITM ROCK SAIA SHAK SIRI SNDR SO SPGI STLA STNG TAL TALK TEX TREE TRN TT TTE TW UTZ VAL VMC WNT WCC WEC WLK WLKP WNC WTW XEL XPO XRX
  • Earnings After the Close: AAPL AJG ALEX ALHC ALKT AMZN APPF ARDX ARI ARW ASUR ATEC ATGE AX AXTI BFAM BJRI COIN COLB COLM CPS CUBE CUZ CWST DXC DXCM EGO ERIE EW EXPO FBIN FHI FND FORR FSLR GDDY GGB GILD GLPI HLI HR HUBG ILMN IR IRTC IVR JAKK KWR LOCO LPLA LUMN MMSI MPWR MSI MSTR MTZ NCMI NET NVST OHI OMI PK RDDT RGA RIOT RKT RMAX RMD RMNI ROKU RSG RYAN SEM SIMO SKYW SPSC SPXC SVV SYK TBBK TEAM TWLO VALE VICI WDC WEAV WERN WY Z ZEUS ZG

Other Key Events:

  • Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy meeting on Wednesday night into Thursday morning
  • China NBS Manufacturing and Services PMI for October

 

 

Macro

Up/Down

Last

Nymex

-0.33

60.15

Brent

-0.37

64.55

Gold

-8.30

3,992.40

EUR/USD

0.0014

1.1613

JPY/USD

1.20

153.91

10-Year Note

+0.016

4.073%

 

World News

  • U.S. president Donald Trump claimed a breakthrough with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on rare earths and tariffs after a nearly two-hour meeting on Thursday. Trump agreed to roll back some tariffs on Chinese imports in exchange for Beijing resuming soybean purchases, keeping rare earth exports flowing and cracking down on fentanyl trafficking. Markets, however, were left guessing as details of the deal remain scarce and China has yet to comment.
  • The euro zone economy expanded by 0.2% in the third quarter, beating expectations for a 0.1% increase, with France and Spain growing well above average, and stagnation in Germany and Italy. On an annualized basis, the economy grew by 1.3%, ahead of expectations for 1.2%.
  • The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was +7.1% vs -5.8% last week. Bulls rise to 44%, from 36.9%, Neutrals fall to 19.1% from 20.5%, Bears drop to 36.9% from 42.7%.

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

  • Boot Barn (BOOT) Q2 EPS $1.37 tops consensus $1.28; Q2 revenue rose 19% y/y to $505.4M vs. est. $494.45M; Q2 comp sales rose 8.4%; raises FY26 EPS view to $6.75-$7.15 from $5.80-$6.70 (est. $6.65); raises FY26 revenue view to $2.197B-$2.235B from $2.1B-$2.18B and ups comp sales growth to 4%-6%, vs. previous view (0.5%)-3.5%.
  • Carvana Inc. (CVNA) Q3 EPS $1.03 vs est $1.26, adj EBITDA $637Mm vs est $586.7Mm on revs $5.65B vs est $5.08B; guides Q4 retail units sold above 150k; sees FY adj EBITDA at/above high end of $2.0-2.2B vs est $2.206B.
  • Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Q3 adj EPS $0.29, in-line with consensus on revs $3.0B vs. est. $3.02B; Q3 comp restaurant sales increased 0.3%; expects 2025 comparable restaurant sales to decline in the low-single digit range, compared with its prior forecast of about flat; outlook 2025, expects 315 to 345 new company-owned restaurant openings with over 80% having a Chipotlane.
  • MercadoLibre (MELI) Q3 net Inc $421Mm vs est $481Mm on revs $7.4B vs est $7.2B, op Inc mgn 9.8%.
  • MGM Resorts (MGM) Q3 adj EPS $0.24 vs. est. $0.40; Q3 revs $4.3B vs. est. $4.24B; said BetMGM North American venture reported accelerated growth in 3Q25, increasing full year guidance for the second consecutive quarter; MGM China achieved both record 3Q Segment Adjusted EBITDAR and market share of 15.5%.
  • Rollins Inc. (ROL) Q3 adjusted EPS $0.35 vs. est. $0.33; Q3 revs rose 12% y/y to $1.0B vs. consensus $1.02B with organic revenues increasing 7.2%; Q3 Adjusted EBITDA was $258M, an increase of 17.7% y/y and adjusted EBITDA margin was 25.2%, an increase of 120 basis points y/y.
  • Sprouts Farmer Market (SFM) Q3 EPS $1.22 vs est $1.17 on revs $2.2B vs est $2.224B, comps +5.9%; guides Q4 comps +0.0-2.0% and EPS $0.86-0.90 vs est $0.98.
  • Starbucks (SBUX) Q4 EPS $0.52 vs. est. $0.55; Q4 revs $9.57B vs. est. $9.35B; Q4 Global comparable store sales increased 1%, primarily driven by a 1% increase in comparable transactions; Q4 North America and U.S. comparable store sales were flat, driven by a 1% increase in average ticket, offset by a 1% decline in comps; Q4 Int’l comparable store sales increased 3%, driven by a 6% increase in comparable transactions; notes Q4 margins were hurt by coffee prices, tariffs and labor investments in turnaround.

Energy, Industrials and Materials

  • Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) announces proposed offering of 75,000,000 common shares.
  • Coeur Mining (CDE) Q3 adj EPS $0.23 vs est $0.21, adj EBITDA $299.1Mm vs est $281.1Mm on revs $554.6Mm vs est $522.13Mm.
  • CH Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) Q3 adj EPS $1.34 vs est $1.30, adj op mgn 31.3% on revs $4.1B vs est $4.266B; guides 2026 op in $965Mm – $1.04B; board authorizes additional $2B buyback.
  • FMC Corp. (FMC) shares tumble; Q3 adj EPS $0.89 vs. est. $0.85; Q3 revs $542M below consensus $1.06B; sees Q4 adjusted EPS $1.14-$1.36, below consensus $1.76 on light revs $1.12B-$1.22B vs. est. $1.29B; cuts quarterly dividend to $0.08; cuts FY25 adjusted EPS view to $2.92-$3.14 from $3.26-$3.70 (est. $3.49) and lowers FY25 revenue view to $3.92B-$4.02B from $4.08B-$4.28B (est. $4.19B).

Financials

  • AvalonBay (AVB) Q3 core FFO $2.75 vs. est. $2.81; Q3 “Same Store Residential rev increased $15,100,000, or 2.3%, to $685,357,000; same Store Residential operating expenses increased $9,911,000, or 4.6%, to $224,309,000 and Same Store Residential NOI increased $5,189,000, or 1.1%, to $461,048,000; sees 2025 core FFO $11.15-$11.35.
  • Extra Space Storage (EXR) Q3 FFO/SHR $2.08 vs est $2.08 on sales $735.581Mm vs est $778.898Mm; narrows FY FFO/SHR guide to $8.12-8.20 vs est $8.18.
  • Prudential (PRU) Q3 adj EPS $4.26 vs. est. $3.72; Q3 Book value per Common share of $90.69 versus $84.47 per share for the year-ago quarter; adjusted book value per Common share of $99.25 versus $98.71 per share for the year-ago quarter; Q3 Assets under management of $1.612 trillion versus $1.558 trillion for the year-ago quarter.
  • Public Storage (PSA) Q3 core FFO/SHR $4.31 vs est $4.24 on revs $1.22B vs est $1.21B; guides FY core FFO/SHR $16.70-17.00 vs est $16.85.
  • Ventas Inc. (VTR) Q3 FFO/SHR $0.88 vs est $0.87 on revs $1.49B vs est $1.426B; guides FY FFO/SHR $3.43-3.46 vs est $3.46.

Healthcare

  • Align Technology (ALGN) shares rise after Q3 adj EPS $2.61 vs est $2.40, adj op Inc $237.8Mm vs est $208.5Mm on revs $995.7Mm vs est $978.3Mm.
  • Biogen (BIIB) lowers FY25 EPS view to $14.50-$15.00 from $15.50-$16.00 vs. est. $15.76.
  • Cigna (CI) Q3 adj EPS $7.83 vs. est. $7.64; Q3 revs $69.57B vs. est. $66.74B; Q3 medical care ratio – the percentage of premiums spent on medical care – rose to 84.8% from 82.8% a year ago; higher costs tied to stop-loss insurance; reaffirms annual profit forecast of at least $29.60.
  • Davita Inc. (DVA) Q3 adj EPS $2.51 vs. est. $3.23; Q3 revs $3.42B vs. est. $3.43B; said Q3 performance was in line with our expectations and keeps them on track to achieve our full-year guidance; raises 2025 EPS $10.35-$11.15 from $10.20-$11.30, vs. consensus $10.78.
  • Glaukos (GKOS) Q3 EPS loss (-$0.16) vs. est. loss (-$0.26); Q3 revs rose 38% y/y to $133.5M vs. est. $122.6M; sees FY26 revenue $600M-$620M, vs. consensus $608.1M and raised FY25 revenue to $490M-$495M from prior $480M-$486M and vs. consensus $484.6M.
  • Guardant Health (GH) shares rise; Q3 adj EPS ($0.39) vs est ($0.76) on revs $265.2Mm vs est $235.7Mm; guides FY revs $965-970Mm vs est $921.91Mm, adj gr mgn 64-65%, FCF burn $225-235Mm.
  • Merck (MRK) Q3 adjusted EPS $2.58, vs. consensus $2.35; Q3 revenue $17.3B vs. est. $16.98B; raises FY25 adjusted EPS view to $8.93-$8.98 from $8.87-$8.97 and narrows FY25 revenue view to $64.5B-$65B from $64.3B-$65.3B, vs. consensus $64.81B.
  • Novo Nordisk (NVO) said it has made an unsolicited bid for U.S. drug maker Metsera (MTSR) after Pfizer (PFE) in September made an offer for the company. Novo said it had offered $56.50 per share in cash for Metsera, corresponding to an enterprise value of $6 billion, while Pfizer in September said it would pay $47.50 per share in cash, representing $4.9 billion in enterprise value.
  • Teladoc Health (TDOC) Q3 EPS loss (-$0.28) vs. est. loss (-$0.23); Q3 revs $626.4M vs. est. $634.8M; sees FY25 EPS loss ($1.25)-($1.10), vs. consensus loss ($1.16) and revs $2.51B-$2.539B vs. est. $2.52B; Q3 BetterHelp segment revenue of $236.9 million, down 8% y/y, and adjusted EBITDA margin of 1.6%.
  • Waystar (WAY) Q3 EPS $0.37 vs. est. $0.35; Q3 revs $268.7M vs. est. $256.75M; raises FY25 non-GAAP EPS view to $1.46-$1.47 from $1.36-$1.40 and ups FY25 revenue view to $1.085B-$1.093B from $1.03B-$1.04B.

Technology, Media & Telecom

  • Alphabet (GOOGL) Q3 EPS $2.87 tops consensus $2.26; Q3 revs $102.35B vs. est. $100.14B; Q3 Google cloud rev. $15.16B, vs. est. $14.75B as the unit continues to close the gap with larger rivals MSFT Azure and Amazon Web Services; both its core advertising business and cloud computing unit showed steady growth; says Gemini app now has over 650m monthly active users; sees FY CAPEX $91B-$93B, forecast about $85B.
  • Meta Inc. (META) Q3 adj EPS $7.25 vs est $6.69 on revs $51.242B vs est $49.408B; Q3 operating margin came in at 40%, down from 43% last year; guides Q4 revs $56-$59B vs est $54.945B; says expect set of investments making within ads and organic engagement initiatives next year; ad impressions delivered across family of apps rose by 14% y/y; expect CAPEX dollar growth notably larger in 2026 than 2025; progress on AI models and products will position to capitalize on new revs opportunities.
  • Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Q1 adj EPS $4.13 vs est $3.67 on revs $77.7B vs est $75.329B (intelligent cloud revs $30.9B, azure & other cloud service revs +40%, productivity & business process revs $33B; sees Q2 revs $79.5b-$80.6B vs. est. $80.1B and said Azure growth will come in at 37% growth.
  • eBay Inc. (EBAY) Q3 adj EPS $1.36 vs. est. $1.33; Q3 revs $2.82B vs. est. $2.73B; Q3 Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) of $20.1 billion, up 10% on an as-reported basis and up 8% on an FX-Neutral basis; sees FY25 revenue to be between $10.97B-$11.03B vs. estimates $10.85B; guides Q4 EPS below ests but revs above.
  • Equinix Inc. (EQIX) Q3 AFFO $9.83 vs. est. $9.26; Q3 revs $2.316B vs. est. $2.33B; raises 2025 AFFO view to $37.95-$38.77 from $37.67-$38.48, vs. consensus $38.00; posted record annualized gross bookings of $394 million, up 25% year over year and 14% over Q2 2025.
  • Impinj (PI) Q3 adj EPS $0.58 vs. est. $0.50; Q3 revs $96.1M vs. est. $92.64M; Q3 GAAP gross margin of 50.3%; non-GAAP gross margin of 53.0%; sees Q4 adj EPS $0.48-$0.52 vs. est. $0.45 and revs $90M-$93M vs. est. $90.96M.
  • KLA-Tencor (KLAC) Q1 EPS $8.81 vs. est. $8.62; Q1 revs $3.21B vs. est. $3.17B; said produced a strong all-around September quarter performance above the guidance midpoints; sees Q2 EPS $7.92-$9.48 vs. est. $8.51; Q2 GAAP gross margin is expected to be in a range of 60.8% +/- 1.0%.
  • ServiceNow (NOW) Q3 adj EPS $4.82 vs est $4.27 on revs $3.407B vs est $3.352B, subscription revs $3.299B; guides Q4 revs $3.42-3.43B vs est $3.505B and FY revs $12.835-12.845B vs est $13.157B.
  • Wolfspeed (WOLF) Q3 adj EPS ($0.55) vs est ($0.64) on revs $196.8Mm vs est $198.5Mm; sees Q2 revs $150-190Mm vs est $231.94Mm; says experienced ongoing softness in market it expects will continue through FY26.

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Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.

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