Early Look

Friday, September 9, 2022

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	273.00	0.86%	32,039
S&P 500	38.25	0.97%	4,044
Nasdaq	157.50	1.28%	12,479

 

 

S&P futures are rising +0.9% to 4,043, at highs of the overnight session (off lows 4,005.75), moving right into its 100-day moving average resistance of 4,038.50 and above its 50-day MA of roughly 4,032 as stocks look to Snap their 3-week losing streak. The dollar index plunges over 1% to 108.50 (more than 200 bps off its 20-year weekly high) and the JPY/USD down to 141.68 after hitting highest level since 1998 mid-week around the 145 marks; the Euro moves back above parity to near 1.01. Thursday’s hawkish ECB outlook is helping boost the euro early on reports the ECB is not ruling out a 75bp hike in Oct; Lane struck a more hawkish tone than last speech; QT exp to be discussed Oct 5. U.S. stocks closed higher on Thursday, ignoring more hawkish commentary from the Fed and despite more broadly negative market calls. Late yesterday, chief investment officer Scott Minerd at Guggenheim Partners tweeted “Since 1960, P/Es have trended lower when #inflation is higher. With YoY core PCE now at 4.6% and S&P500 trading at ~19x, we should see stocks fall another 20% by mid-October … if historical seasonals mean anything.” Minerd then followed up in a CNBC interview, “given the recent strength over the last few days, it just appears that people are ignoring the macro backdrop, the monetary policy backdrop, which basically indicates the bear market is intact.” Bitcoin prices spiking over 8% to around $21,000 (after spending much of the week around $19K) as a bout of dollar weakness drove demand for risk assets. Softer inflation data in China overnight helping markets. Oil is higher, up from yesterday’s seven month low of $81.20. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rose 150 points to 28,214, the Shanghai Index gained +0.8% to 3,262, and the Hang Seng Index surged over 500 points to 19.362. In Europe, the German DAX is up 1.4% to 13,090, while the FTSE 100 jumps 1.65% to 7,383.

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index gained 26.31 points, or 0.66%, to 4,006.18

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 193.24 points, or 0.61%, to 31,774.52

·     The Nasdaq Composite jumped 70.23 points, or 0.60%, to 11,862.13

·     The Russell 2000 Index advanced 14.90 points, or 0.81% to 1,846.91

 

Economic Calendar for Today

·     10:00 AM ET         Fed’s Evans Discusses Careers in Economics

·     10:00 AM ET         Wholesale Inventories M/M for July

·     1:00 PM EST         Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

 

Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings Before the Open: ABM KR PSXP

 

Other Key Events:

·     Cowen Annual Global Transportation & Sustainable Mobility Conference (virtual), 9/7-9/9

·     European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) Conference, 9/9-9/13 in Paris

·     Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference, 9/7-9/9, in MA

·     Wells Fargo Leveraged Finance Conference, 9/7-9/9, in Nashville, TN

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	1.32	84.84
Brent	1.43	90.58
Gold	18.40	1,738.60
EUR/USD	0.0095	1.0089
JPY/USD	-2.44	141.65
10-Year Note	-0.028	3.264%

 

 

World News

·     China Consumer Price Index (CPI) y/y reported at +2.5% vs. est. 2.8% and previous +2.7%; CPI m/m reported at -0.1% vs. est. +0.2% and previous +0.5%

·     China Producer Price Index (PPI) y/y reported at +2.3% vs. est. +3.2% and previous +4.2%

·     The monthly mortgage payment on the median home for sale in the US has increased 40% over the last year ($1,664 to $2,337) as mortgage rates have moved from 2.88% to 5.89%

 

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     RH Corp. (RH) Q2 EPS $8.08 vs. est. $6.81; Q2 revs $992M vs. est. $968.4M; sees Q3 net revenue in the range of (15%) to (18%) with adjusted operating margin in the range of 18.5% to 19.0%; sees FY22 net revenue growth in the range of (3.5%) to (5.5%) with adjusted operating margin in the range of 21.0% to 21.5%

·     American Outdoors (AOUT) 1Q adj EPS $0.01 vs est. $0.08 on sales $43.7Mm vs est. $45.1Mm; says not giving specific guidance, believes revs for FY23 could exceed pre-pandemic FY20 revs by as much as 25%

·     Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI) 1Q adj EPS $0.11 vs est. $0.34 on revs $84.4Mm vs est. $129.8Mm, adj gross margin 38.8%, adj EBITDA margin 18.5%

·     Zumiez (ZUMZ) 2Q EPS $0.16 vs est. $0.47 on sales $220Mm vs est. $231.5Mm; 3Q to-date sales -18.1% y/y, comps -19.7% y/y and -15.3% vs 2019; guides 3Q sales $220-228Mm vs est. $277.2Mm, op margin $0.5-2.5% and EPS $0.03-0.18 vs est. $1.13

·     Mission Produce (AVO) 3Q adj EPS $0.27 vs est. $0.31 on revs $313.2Mm vs est. $283.5Mm, adj EBITDA $31.6Mm vs est. $34.9Mm; says industry expecting 4Q volumes to increase sequentially and remain consistent with prior year, pricing peaked early 3Q and is likely to soften further in 4Q, expectations for avocado production from owned farms 110-120Mm pounds for full harvest season vs 101Mm pounds in 2021

·     Limoneira (LMNR) Q3 adj $0.41 vs. est. $0.23; Q3 revs rose 20% to $58.9M vs. est. $51.39M driven by record avocado revenues and strong fresh lemon sales; still sees FY22 fresh lemon volumes 4.5M-5M cartons

 

Energy, Industrials and Materials

·     Concrete Pumping Holdings (BBCP) 3Q EPS $0.24 vs est. $0.12 on revs $104.5Mm vs est. $94Mm; guides FY revs $380-390Mm vs est. $374.6Mm and adj EBITDA $115-120Mm vs est. $116.5Mm

·     Crescent Energy (CRGY) 5M share Secondary priced at $15.00

·     Valaris (VAL) announced a $100M stock buyback program

·     Virgin Galactic (SPCE) downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Bernstein saying Q2 results follow a pattern over the last two years that has meant delay of future flight operations, redesign of elements of its platform, and a need to raise more cash

 

Financials

·     Bitcoin prices jump 8% approaching $21,000, lifting shares of crypto related names (MSTR, COIN, MARA, RIOT, SI, etc.)

·     Robinhood (HOOD) introducing the Robinhood Investor Index; the Index captures how our customers are investing based on the top 100 most owned stocks on Robinhood

·     Annaly Capital Management (NLY) board approved a reverse stock split of its common stock at a ratio of 1-for-4

 

Healthcare

·     Regeneron (REGN) upgraded to Hold from Underperform at Jefferies and raised tgt to $675 from $536

·     The U.S. plans to boost its COVID-19 testing capacity by purchasing more than 100M additional at-home rapid COVID-19 tests from local manufacturers despite funding constraints in preparation for a potential increase in demand in the fall and winter.

 

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     T-Mobile US (TMUS) board of directors has authorized a stock repurchase program for up to $14.0B of company’s common stock

·     DocuSign (DOCU) 2Q adj EPS $0.44 vs est. $0.42 on revs $622.2Mm vs est. $602.2Mm, adj gross margin 82%, free cash flow $105.5Mm; sees 3Q revs $624-628Mm vs est. $625Mm with adj EBIT margin 16-18%

·     Zscaler (ZS) Q4 EPS $0.25 vs. est. $0.20; Q4 revs rose 61% y/y to $318.1M vs. est. $305.4M; sees Q1 revs $339M-$341M vs. est. $324.8M; sees FY23 EPS $1.16-$1.18 vs. est. $1.04 and sees FY23 revenue $1.49B-$1.5B vs. consensus $1.47B

·     eGain Corp. (EGAN) 4Q adj EPS $0.03 vs est. $0.00 on revs $23.5Mm vs est. $23.4Mm

·     ContextLogic (WISH) said Vijay Talwar has departed the co as CEO and from the Bd of Directors, effective immediately