Early Look

Thursday, September 11, 2025

U.S. stocks are on track to open at another record high for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, with futures pushing higher ahead of the August consumer price index (CPI) inflation reading at 8:30 am et. Stocks finished higher on Wednesday after producer prices (PPI) posted their first decline in four months, reinforcing bets the Federal Reserve will start cutting rates next week at its policy meeting, while the tech space paced the market gains after Oracle (ORCL) shares soared 36% on strong AI-driven cloud guidance. Treasury yields slipped as traders nearly fully priced in three Fed rate cuts in 2025 ahead of the CPI report due Thursday. As yields dropped the 10-year outperformed after a strong reopening sale signaled investor demand for duration. The dollar fluctuated and gold dipped from record highs while Bitcoin rebounded (holding above $114K this morning). Crude oil rose for a third day as geopolitical tensions outweighed the emerging global oil glut. The rally in bonds and stocks will be tested Thursday with consumer price data due along with a 30-year bond auction. The European Central Bank (ECB) is set to leave interest rates unchanged this morning. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index surged 534 points to 44,372, the Shanghai Index jumped 63 points to 3,875, and the Hang Seng Index fell -113 points to 26,086. In Europe, the German DAX is up 33 points to 23,666, while the FTSE 100 is up 45 points to 9,271.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -220.42 points, or 0.48%, to 45,490.92
• The Nasdaq Composite edged higher 6.57 points, or 0.03%, to 21,886.06
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -3.81 points, or 0.16% to 2,378.01

• 8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims…est. 1.951M (prior 1.94M)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline M/M for Aug…est. +0.3% (prior +0.2%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline Y/Y for Aug…est. +2.9% (prior +2.7%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Core CPI (ex: food & energy) M/M for Aug…est. +0.3% (prior (+0.3%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Core CPI (ex: food & energy) Y/Y for Aug…est. est. +3.1% (prior +3.1%)
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 11:00 AM ET                Cleveland Fed CPI for August
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $25B in 30-year notes
• 2:00 PM ET                   Federal Budget for August…est. (-$285.5B)

• Earnings After the Close: ADBE FARM IBEX KMTS RENT ZENV

• Deutsche Bank Healthcare Summit, 9/10-9/11, in New York
• Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference, 9/8-9/11, in San Francisco, CA
• Morgan Stanley European Utilities and Energy Summit, 9/9-9/11
• Morgan Stanley Laguana Conference, 9/10-9/12
• Oppenheimer Targeted Radiopharmaceutical Therapies in Oncology Summit, 9/11
• Piper 4th Annual Growth Frontiers Conference, 9/9-9/11, in Nashville, TN
• Wolfe Research Tech Conference, 9/8-9/11

• World oil supply will rise more rapidly than expected this year as OPEC+ members increase output further and supply from outside the group grows, the International Energy Agency said, and implied that a surplus could grow in 2026. Supply will rise by 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, up from 2.5 million bpd previously forecast, the IEA said in a monthly report, and by a further 2.1 million bpd next year.
• The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was -21.5 vs -10.7 last week. Bulls fall to 28% from 32.7%, Neutrals fall to 22.5% from 23.9%, Bears rise to 49.5% from 43.4%

• Oxford Industries (OXM) Q2 adj EPS $1.26 vs. est. $1.18; Q2 revs $403M vs. est. $410.9M; Q2 adj gross margin 61.7%; affirming its sales and adjusted EPS guidance for FY; estimate company may incur incremental tariffs of approximately $80M during FY25; sees Q3 revenue $295M-$310M vs. est. $308.88M.
• Shopify (SHOP) Chief Operating Officer Nejatian leaving company with last day will be September 12.

• Ecovyst (ECVT) announced that it entered into a definitive agreement to sell its advanced materials and catalysts segment to Technip Energies (FTI) for a purchase price of $556M.
• Enovix (ENVX) announces $300M convertible senior notes offering.
• EQT Corporation (EQT) files automatic mixed securities shelf.
• FedEx (FDX) downgraded to Neutral from Buy and UPS Inc. (UPS) to Underperform at Bank America, accounting for increased pressure on volume and costs following the end of U.S. de minimis exemptions.
• Hubbell (HUBB) announced that Bill Sperry will retire as CFO effective December 31 after 17 years of service to the company, including 14 years as CFO.
• Iridium (IRDM) downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James and cut tgt to $26 from $39, following the news that SpaceX Starlink is buying 50 MHz of AWS-4 and H-Block spectrum in the U.S. from EchoStar (SATS).

• Artisan Partners (APAM) reported that its preliminary assets under management as of August 31 totaled $178.1B. Artisan Funds and Artisan Global Funds accounted for $87B of total firm AUM, while separate accounts and other AUM accounted for $91.1B.
• Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) announced that Kaz Nejatian, Chief Operating Officer of Shopify, has been appointed Chief Executive Officer and member of the Board of Directors. Co-Founders Keith Rabois and Eric Wu are returning to the Board of Directors, with Rabois taking on the role of Chairman.
• Victory Capital (VCTR) reported Total Assets Under Management of $303.7 billion, Other Assets of $2.7 billion, and Total Client Assets of $306.4 billion, as of August 31, 2025

• Centene Corp (CNC) said its business and financial results through Aug, consistent with prior FY 2025 forecast of $1.75 adj EPS.
• Revolution Medicines, Inc. (RVMD) announced key clinical updates from its daraxonrasib Phase 1 clinical trials. Initial clinical results for Daraxonrasib Monotherapy and Daraxonrasib plus chemo support planned initiation of three-arm phase 3 trial in Q4.
• Thermo Fisher (TMO) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays; raise tgt to $550 from $490.

• Aviat Networks (AVNW) Q4 revs $115.3M vs. est. $114.7M; Q4 adj Ebitda $15.1M vs. est. $11.2M; sees FY26 revenue $440M-$460M vs. consensus $434.09M and sees FY26 adjusted EBITDA $45.0M-$55.0M.
• Nebius Group NV (NBIS) prices $1B public offering at $92.50 per share.
• Nvidia (NVDA) upgraded to Buy at DA Davidson and raise tgt to $210 from $195, citing the belief the growth in AI compute demand will drive enough demand to sustain growth into next year and likely beyond.
• Wolfspeed (WOLF) announced the commercial launch of its 200mm SiC materials products, marking a significant milestone in the company’s mission to accelerate the industry’s transition from silicon-to-silicon carbide