Early Look

Friday, September 12, 2025

U.S. futures are looking slightly lower, a day after the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 46,000 for first time, joining the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in booking new record highs. For the S&P 500, it is looking for another golden week or 5 trading days, 5 record highs (would mark its 25th ATH of the year). U.S. stocks finished at fresh record highs on Thursday, as investors took new inflation data in stride while counting on the Federal Reserve to resume cutting interest rates next week. Given recent signs of cracks in the job market (nonfarm payrolls, BLS revisions, weekly jobless claims 4-year highs) expectations are for the Fed to execute a series of interest-rate cuts in the coming months, starting with at least a 25-bps cut at next Wednesday’s FOMC policy meeting. Treasuries were set to extend their rally into a fourth week after Thursday’s jobless claims data cemented expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week. The dollar is on track for its biggest weekly decline in a month, while Bitcoin and Ethereum prices rise. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index jumped 395 points to 44,768, the Shanghai Index dipped -4 points to 3,870, and the Hang Seng Index advanced 301 points to 26,388. In Europe, the German DAX is down about -75 points to 23,628, while the FTSE 100 rises 26 points to 9,324. In Tech news, Super Micro Computer announced the availability of its Nvidia Blackwell Ultra solutions; Adobe (ADBE) reported better quarterly results and OpenAI and Microsoft (MSFT) have signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding (MOU) for the next phase of our partnership. In retail, RH shares fell on Q2 miss and lower guidance.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 617.08 points, or 1.36%, to 46,108.00
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 157.01 points, or 0.72%, to 22,043
• The Russell 2000 Index surged 43,51 points, or 1.83% to 2,421.53

• 10:00 AM ET                University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations
• 12:00 PM ET WASDE crop report for September
• 1:00 PM ET                   Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

• Reuters reported that US Treasury Secretary Bessent will travel to Spain and the UK from Sept. 12–18 for meetings with governments and the private sector. In Madrid he will meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and other senior officials to discuss U.S.-China security, economic, and trade issues and TikTok.
• CNBC reported that Treasury Secretary Bessent interviewed former Fed officials Kevin Warsh, Larry Lindsey and Jim Bullard for the Fed chair role this week.
• The ECB will cut interest rates two more times as economic growth is likely to remain lackluster, according to Amundi’s chief investment officer.

• General Motors (GM) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays and raised tgt to $73 from $55 saying they see a favorable environment for the company amid easing U.S. electric vehicle regulations and resiliency in U.S. car pricing. The firm also upgraded Aptiv (APTV) to Overweight.
• RH (RH) Q2 revs rose 8.4% y/y to $899.2M vs. est. $904.6M; Q2 adj EPS $2.93 vs. est. $3.22; sees Q3 revenue growth 8%-10% and sees Q3 adjusted EBITDA margin 18%-19%; raises FY25 revenue growth view to 9%-11% from 8%-10% but cuts FY adj view; said updated outlook reflects a $30 million cost of incremental tariffs, net of mitigation, in the second half.
• Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB) 14.706M share IPO priced at $20.00.

• Legence (LGN) 26M share IPO priced at $28.00.
• NextDecade (NEXT) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley and cut tgt to $10 from $15 after the company reached a final investment decision on Train 4 of its Rio Grande project and reiterated expectations for a decision on Train 5 in Q4.
• Northrop Grumman (NOC) has delivered a second B-21 stealth bomber for flight tests, according to the Air Force, per Bloomberg.

• Novartis (NVS) was downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman Sachs after having been the best performing stocks in European pharma over the last five years, but its growth rate will structurally reset lower.

• Applied Materials (AMAT) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Mizuho saying exposed to PVD/Sputtering, Plasma CVD, and 28nm+ Conductor Etch (~60% of Revs for AMAT, but only 40% of Revs for LAM), losing share. Mizuho believes the largest share shifts are happening in Sputtering/PCVD where AMAT’s revenue share is ~47% while LRCX less exposed at ~15%.
• OpenAI and Microsoft (MSFT) have signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding (MOU) for the next phase of our partnership. We are actively working to finalize contractual terms in a definitive agreement. Together, we remain focused on delivering the best AI tools for everyone, grounded in our shared commitment to safety.
• Paramount (PSKY)/Warner (WBD) deal would face regulatory, financing hurdles – Bloomberg https://tinyurl.com/m7b6r5ak
• Supermicro (SMCI) begins volume shipments of Nvidia (NVDA) Blackwell ultra systems and rack plug-and-play data center-scale solutions.
• Akamai (AKAM) and Harmonic (HLIT) introduced Akamai Media Services Live 5 powered by Harmonic.