Early Look

Monday, September 15, 2025

U.S. futures are looking higher after finishing last week strong, as all eyes await the Wednesday FOMC policy rate meeting where at least a 25-bps cut is widely anticipated. A rate cut could provide another tailwind for stocks, particularly as AI enthusiasm continues to drive market sentiment, despite spreading fears of an AI bubble. Overnight, shares of Nvidia (NVDA) are weaker after China said a preliminary probe found the AI chipmaker had violated antitrust laws. Beijing’s move turns up pressure on the US as its team led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent head into a second day of high-level talks with Chinese counterparts. On a positive note, shares of Tesla (TSLA) are looking higher after filings revealed CEO Elon Musk bought over 2.56 million shares worth over $1 billion (explaining the underlying bid all day last Thursday and Friday). Last week were more fireworks for major US averages with the S&P 5000, Nasdaq and Dow all touching record highs as the S&P 500 gained 1.59%, the Nasdaq climbed 2.03%, and the Dow climbed 0.95%. Treasuries gave back ground after a strong run throughout the week on positive auction results and Fed rate-cut hopes, as pre-weekend profit-taking pushed yields higher and left the curve steeper. Oil caught an early geopolitical bid on fresh Russia tariff/sanction concerns but gave much of those gains back. Gold held steady, eking out slight gains on the day. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index advanced 395 points to 44,768, the Shanghai Index fell -10 points to 3,860, and the Hang Seng Index gained 58 points to 26,446. In Europe, the German DAX is up 86 points to 23,785, while the FTSE 100 is little changed at 9,282.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -273.78 points, or 0.59%, to 45,834.22
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 98.03 points, or 0.44%, to 22,141.10
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -24.47 points, or 1.01% to 2,397.06

• Earnings After the Close: HITI OPTT PLAY RLGT

• China’s Industrial output growth slowed to 5.2% in August, compared to the 5.7% jump in July, marking its weakest level since August 2024, according to LSEG data. Economists had expected the data to be unchanged from the previous month.
• S&P on Spain: Upgraded rating to A+ from A/A-1 on strengthening external financial position; stable O/L.
• Fitch on France: Downgraded rating to A+ from AA-; cites rising debt burden that limits govt ability to respond to future economic shocks without further straining public finances.
• Fitch on Portugal: Upgraded rating to A from A- on fiscal strength, external deleveraging; stable O/L.
• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is scheduled to visit Qatar on Tuesday, the Washington Post reported, citing two government officials in the Middle East.

• Alaska Air (ALK) said it sees Q3 adjusted EPS at low end of $1.00-$1.40, vs. consensus $1.35, driven primarily by elevated fuel costs and operational challenges during the summer which have pressured unit costs. West Coast refining margins have remained high due to ongoing refinery disruptions.
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• Mizuho reiterated Top Picks (COP, CHRD, CTRA) in Oil & Gas E&P, downgrade TALO to Neutral, CVI to Underperform and upgraded CNX to Neutral as they update their commodity price outlook and stock valuations, maintaining a slight preference for gas stocks.
• Permian Resources Corp (PR) announces public offering of 46.1 mln class a shares by Pearl Energy Investments & Riverstone Investment Group.
• Union Pacific (UNP) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup saying the recent drop in the shares creates a compelling risk/reward profile.

• Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) announces $300M share repurchase program.

• China launched two investigations vs. the U.S. semiconductor industry on Saturday, a day before fresh U.S.-China trade talks. The headlines weighing on auto industrial chip names ADI, NXPI, ON and TXN.
• Palo Alto Networks (PANW) added to Best Ideas List at Wedbush as it has incremental confidence in the company’s platformization strategy heading into FY26 and beyond.