Early Look

Friday, September 23, 2022

U.S. stock futures are looking much lower yet again, down more than 1% as Treasury yields extend their rise with the 10-year yield at 3.77% and the 2-year around 4.2%, still feeling the effects from the overly “hawkish” Federal Reserve comments earlier this week. Stocks remain on track for a 4^th straight session decline, another brutal weak of stock returns as the Fed’s 75 basis point rate hike earlier this week, the third in succession, also showed plans more aggressive rates hikes this year and no timeline for rate cuts until 2024. The S&P is likely to test support at the late-June/mid-July lows of 3,738 to 3,712 and there is a risk of a “retest or undercut” of the June low of 3,636, Bank America said in a note today. Still with one more trading day to go, the S&P 500 is down little less than -3% on the week, the Nasdaq -3.3% WTD (SOX -5% WTD), the Russell -4.2% WTD and the Dow -2.4% WTD. This week’s losses follow the worst weekly performance since mid-June last Friday when the S&P fell -4.78% for the five-day session, the Dow fell -4.15% and the Nasdaq 100 fell -5.8%. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -159 points to 27,153, the Shanghai Index dropped -20 points to 3,088, and the Hang Seng Index declines -214 points to 17,933. In Europe, the German DAX tumbles -235 points or 1.89% below 12,300, while the FTSE 100 is down -125 points to 7,035. The British Pound extends freefall vs. the dollar, down -1.6% to 1.1081 as the UK government unveiled the biggest tax cuts since the early 1970s (Pound lowest levels since the 1980’s). The CBOE Volatility index (VIX) still not reacting higher, holding below 30.

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index dropped -31.94 points, or 0.84%, to 3,757.99

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -107.10 points, or 0.35%, to 30,076.68

·     The Nasdaq Composite tumbled -153.39 points, or 1.37%, to 11,066.81

·     The Russell 2000 Index declined -39.85 points, or 2.26% to 1,722.31

Economic Calendar for Today

·     9:30 AM ET           S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Sept-Flash

·     9:30 AM ET           S&P Global Services PMI, Sept-Flash

·     9:30 AM ET           S&P Global Composite, Sept-Flash

·     1:00 PM EST         Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

World News

·     The British pound slid, and U.K. government bond yields reached multiyear highs after the government unveiled the biggest tax cuts since the early 1970s

·     The S&P Global Flash Eurozone Services PMI fell to 48.9 in September of 2022 from 49.8 in August, pointing to a second consecutive month of contraction in services activity

·     S&P Global’s flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), fell to 48.2 in September from 48.9 in August

·     The S&P Global Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3 in September of 2022 from 49.1 in August, pointing to a third consecutive month of falling factory activity, and the worst since June of 2020, preliminary estimates showed.

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Costco (COST) Q4 EPS $4.20 vs. est. $4.17; Q4 sales up 15.2% y/y to $70.76B vs. est. $72.04B; Q4 total comp sales incl gas, FX +13.7% vs. est. +12.5%; company comparable sales excluding fuel, in constant currency +10.4%, vs. estimate +9.82%

·     Cruise line stocks (CCL, RCL, NCLH) decline as Hurricane Fiona batters through major Caribbean holiday destinations

·     EU commercial vehicle registrations down 17.4% in July, down 8.0% in August

Energy, Industrials and Materials

·     AAR Corp. (AIR) Q1 adj EPS $0.61 vs. est. $0.57; Q1 sales $446M vs. est. $454.9M

·     Boeing Co. (BA) is poised to settle a Securities and Exchange Commission investigation into allegedly misleading statements the company and then-Chief Executive Dennis Muilenburg made about the 737 MAX jets that crashed in Indonesia and Ethiopia – WSJ reported

·     Pentair (PNR) is working with an adviser and the business may be valued at $800 million in a sale, according to a Bloomberg report. The unit is likely to see interest from private equity.

·     Raytheon Technologies (RTX) beat Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Boeing (BA) for a $985M contract award from the U.S. Department of Defense contract to design, develop and produce the new Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile

Financials

·     Apollo Global (APO) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Bank America

·     Digital Realty (DLR) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight and Equinix (EQIX) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays

·     LPL Financial (LPLA) reports August-end advisory brokerage/advisory assets down 1.7%; total advisory and brokerage assets at the end of August were $1.10T, a decrease of $19.5B, or 1.7%, compared to the end of July 2022

Healthcare

·     AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) said that its Ultomiris drug has been approved in the European Union for the treatment of adults with the rare disease generalized myasthenia gravis.

·     Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) said AstraZeneca (AZN) will not advance ION449 (AZD8233) into phase 3 development for hypercholesterolemia after the antisense medicine did show the required efficacy in a phase 2b study.

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     CalAmp Corp. (CAMP) Q2 adj EPS loss (-$0.02) vs. est. loss (-$0.03); Q2 revs $72.83M vs. est. $68.97M; sees Q3 revenue up low to mid-single digits vs. consensus $72.38M; maintaining its policy of not providing quarterly guidance due to visibility into product shipments remaining difficult to accurately assess

·     Guidewire (GWRE) announces $400 million share repurchase program