Early Look

Friday, September 26, 2025

U.S. futures are looking flat entering Friday after dipping for a third straight day Thursday, as today’s monthly inflation data takes center stage. Estimates for the August core PCE inflation reading, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, are expected to keep year-on-year inflation unchanged at an elevated level of 2.9%. The other big story today was a steady flow of tariff headlines overnight on pharmaceuticals, heavy trucks and furniture, including a 100% duty on patented drugs (all impacting several stocks such as W, WSM, RH, PCAR, JNJ, and all detailed below). The President is also said to be taking aim at semiconductor chip makers with new plans to curb imports, according to the WSJ. The U.S. dollar and bond yields extended gains and stock losses accelerated Thursday as better-than-forecast data clouded the outlook for future rate cuts. The dollar notched its biggest two-day advance since May after second-quarter GDP and personal consumption were unexpectedly revised up while August preliminary durable goods orders jumped, implying a broadening in capex. That together with a drop in initial jobless claims caused traders to pull back on the prospect of two more rate cuts by year end. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index declined -399 points to 45,354, the Shanghai Index fell -25 points to 3,828, and the Hang Seng Index dropped -356 points to 26,128. In Europe, the German DAX is up 83 points to 23,618, while the FTSE 100 gains 33 points to 9,247. Oil prices are on track for their best weekly gains in more than 3 months, and on track for a rise of around 4%. Gold prices are down slightly, but on track for a sixth weekly gain to about 2%, supported by elevated geopolitical tensions, a risk-off tone in broader markets, and inflation fears.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -173.96 points, or 0.38%, to 45,947.32
• The Nasdaq Composite slumped -113.16 points, or 0.50%, to 22,384.70
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -23.94 points, or 0.98% to 2,411.04

• 8:30 AM ET                  Personal Spending M/M for August…
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Price Index M/M for August…est. +0.3% (prior +0.2%)
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Price Index Y/Y for August…est. +2.7% (prior +2.6%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Core PCE Price Index M/M for August…est. +0.2% (prior +0.3%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Core PCE Price Index Y/Y for August…est. +2.9% (prior +2.9%)
• 10:00 AM ET                University of Michigan Sentiment, Sept-final…est. 55.4
• 10:00 AM ET                University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations
• 1:00 PM ET                   Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

• Foreigners plowed $290.7 billion into the US stock market in the three months ended June 30, accord to the Fed data. Treasury International Capital (TIC) data showed that as of July, foreign holdings of US equities are on pace to rise by $2.8 trillion this year. Foreign buyers hold some $18 trillion in US stocks, about 30% of the nearly $60 billion market, the most in data going back to 1945, according data cited by Bank of America.
• Eurozone median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose in August to 2.8% from 2.6% a month earlier while expectations five years ahead increased to 2.2% from 2.1%, their highest level since August 2022.

• William Sonoma (WSM), Wayfair (W) and RH (RH) shares fell overnight in furniture retailers after the Trump administration said they were imposing a 50% Tariff on all Kitchen Cabinets, Bathroom Vanities, and associated products, starting October 1st, 2025. Additionally, we will be charging a 30% Tariff on Upholstered Furniture. The reason for this is the large scale “flooding” of these products into the United States by other outside Countries.

• Mercury Systems (MRCY) announced it received a $12.3M development contract from a defense prime contractor to develop an avionics subsystem for a new U.S. military aircraft.
• Paccar (PCAR) and Cummins (CMI) shares may be active after President Trump said last night, “In order to protect our Great Heavy Truck Manufacturers from unfair outside competition, I will be imposing, as of October 1st, 2025, a 25% Tariff on all “Heavy (Big!) Trucks” made in other parts of the World. Shares of Daimler Truck (DTRUY) and Traton (TRATY) shares fell in reaction.

• Cipher Mining (CIFR) announced pricing of upsized private offering of $1.1 billion of convertible bonds due 2031; the offering was boosted from initial size of $800 million of convertible bonds; initial conversion price of $16.03 per share represents 37.5% premium to CIFR’s last reported sale price.
• IREN (IREN) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JPMorgan and raise tgt to $24 from $16 as the firm updated bitcoin miner ratings and price targets to reflect changes in bitcoin mining profitability, and upside from high performance compute colocation and cloud services.
• Riot Platforms (RIOT) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan and raise tgt to $19 from $15 to reflect changes in bitcoin mining profitability, and upside from high performance compute colocation and cloud services.

• Large cap Pharma stocks (PFE, LLY, MRK, JNJ) shares get a bump after Trump said last night the U.S. will impose a 100% tariff on “all any branded or patented Pharmaceutical Product” entering the country from Oct. 1. The measure will not apply to companies building drug manufacturing plants in the U.S., Trump added. He said that the exemption covers projects where construction has started, including sites that have broken ground or are under construction.

• Concentrix (CNXC) Q3 adj EPS $2.78 vs. est. $2.86 and revs $2.48B vs. est. $2.458B; Q3 adj Ebitda $359.2M vs. est. $380M and adj Operating Income $305.1M vs. est. $322M; guides FY revs $9.79B-$9.82B and said expects to generate approximately $585M-$610M of adj free cash flow in fiscal year 2025; cuts FY25 EPS view to $11.11-$11.23 from $11.53-$11.76 and narrows FY rev outlook.
• GlobalFoundries (GFS) shares rise after the WSJ reported the Trump administration is weighing a new plan to reduce dramatically the U.S.’s reliance on semiconductors made overseas, hoping to spur domestic manufacturing and reshape global supply chains. The policy’s goal is to have chip companies manufacture the same number of semiconductors in the U.S. as their customers import from overseas producers. Article says the process could challenge the biggest tech companies such as Apple (AAPL) and Dell Technologies (DELL), which import products containing a host of different chips from all over the world. Also says It could be a boon for companies increasing U.S. production such as Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Micron Technology (MU) and GlobalFoundries (GFS), which would get more leverage in discussions with customers.
• Lightpath (LPTH) Q4 EPS loss (-$0.16) vs. est. loss (-$0.04); Q4 revs $12.2M, in-line with consensus $12.2M.
• NBCUniversal (CMCSA) has cautioned YouTube TV (GOOGL) subscribers that its programming could soon go dark on the platform amid a spat over carriage fees and terms – Deadline reports.
• Oracle Corp. (ORCL): President Trump has just signed an executive order making the TikTok deal official, saving the platform and putting it under majority American control.
• Paramount Skydance Corporation (PSKY) announced the appointment of Makan Delrahim as Chief Legal Officer, effective October 6. Delrahim will oversee all legal, regulatory, compliance & public policy matters including oversight of Paramount’s Government Relations team.
• Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) was downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at Keybanc.