Early Look

Friday, September 30, 2022

U.S. stock futures are edging higher into the final trading day of the month and quarter, as a further easing of Treasury yields (10-yr to 3.68%) helps lift stocks early while investors eagerly await important inflation data later this morning in the form of August PCE Prices, Core PCE at 8:30 AM ET, then University of Michigan inflation expectations later at 10:00 AM. Even with the big inflation readings coming up today – concern remains that even if it shows signs of deceleration, the Fed has made it clear over the last 2-weeks that hikes will be coming regardless as they try and get closer to their 2% target. Stocks resumed their 2022 sell-off on Thursday, sending the S&P 500 to a new low for the year, as fears swirled that a recession won’t stop the Fed from raising interest rates. The Dow fell 1.54%, the S&P 500 plunged 2.11%, and the Nasdaq tumbled 2.84% adding to the monthly declines as month and quarter end conclude this afternoon. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index declined -484 points to 25,937, the Shanghai Index fell -16 points to 3,024, and the Hang Seng Index gains 56 points to 17,222. In Europe, the German DAX rises about 100-points to 12,075, while the FTSE 100 rises about 50 points to 6,930. In stock news, shares of Dow component Nike (NKE) slide over 9% after the company warned that gross margins would remain pressured through the year and issued mixed Q2 guidance. Semi chip maker Micron (MU) with dismal revenue guidance for next quarter but shares reverse from overnight losses.

Economic Calendar for Today

·     8:30 AM ET                  Personal Income M/M for August…est. +0.3%

·     8:30 AM ET                  Personal Spending M/M for August

·     8:30 AM ET                  PCE Price Index M/M for Aug…prior (-0.1%)

·     8:30 AM ET                  PCE Price Index Y/Y for Aug…prior +6.3%

·     8:30 AM ET                  Core PCE Price Index M/M for Aug…est. +0.5%

·     8:30 AM ET                  Core PCE Price Index Y/Y for Aug…est. +4.7%

·     9:00 AM ET                  Fed’s Brainard Speaks at Fed Conference on Financial Stability

·     9:45 AM ET                  Chicago PMI for September…est. 51.8

·     10:00 AM ET                University of Michigan Sentiment, Sept-F…est. 59.5

·     1:00 PM EST                Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

·     4:15 PM ET                   Fed’s Williams Speaks at Fed Conference on Financial Stability

Other Key Events:

·     American Academy of Ophthalmology Conference, 9/30-10/3, in Chicago

·     Credit Suisse Education & Healthcare Conference, 9/26-9/30 in Brazil

·     Wolfe Utilities, Midstream & Clean Energy Conference 2022, 9/28-9/30 in NY

·     9th annual Milken Institute Asia Summit 9/28-9/30

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index dropped -78.57 points, or 2.11%, to 3,640.47

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -458.13 points, or 1.54%, to 29,225.6

·     The Nasdaq Composite tumbled -314.13 points, or 2.84%, to 10,737,51

·     The Russell 2000 Index declined -40.31 points, or 2.35% to 1,674.93

World News

·     Euro zone inflation hit 10.0% in September, a new record high and above the 9.1% in August and ahead of economist estimates of 9.7%, that will reinforce expectations for another jumbo interest rate hike next month from the European Central Bank.

·     China Sept NBS Manufacturing PMI reported at 50.1 vs 49.6 consensus; China Sep Caixin/Markit Manufacturing PMI reported at 48.1 vs 49.5 consensus

·     Japan Aug Retail Sales: 1.4% m/m vs 0.2% consensus; 4.1% y/y vs 2.8% consensus; Japan Aug Unemployment Rate: 2.5% in-line; Japan Aug Ind Prod (prelim): 2.7% m/m vs 0.2% cons; 5.1% y/y vs 1.8% consensus

·     The UK PM and Chancellor will meet the head of OBR today after the govt’s mini budget caused investor panic

·     Russia to annex four Ukrainian regions ‘; Putin on Friday to sign treaties with Russia-appointed occupation officials and make a substantial speech during the ceremony in the Kremlin; Zelensky pledges a tough military response from Kyiv to Russia’s annexation – Financial Times

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Nike (NKE) shares fall -8%; Q1 EPS $0.92 vs. est. $0.92; Q1 revs rose 3.6% Y/Y to $12.69B vs. est. $12.31B; Q1 Greater China total revenue was $1.65B vs $1.982B reported last year; Q1 North America revs $5.510B vs. $4,879B last year; qtr-end inventories were $9.7B, up 44%, driven by elevated in-transit inventories from ongoing supply chain volatility; Q1 gross margin 44.3% vs est. 45.4%; sees Q2 revenue up low double digits, gross margins to decline 350-400bps

·     Rent-A-Center (RCII) cuts Q3 EPS view to $0.85-$0.95 below prior view of $1.05-$1.25 (estimate $1.14) and cuts Q3 revenue view to $1B-$1.02B from $1B-$1.055B (est. $1.03B)

·     Blue Apron (APRN) announces CFO transition; appointed Mitchell Cohen to serve as interim chief financial officer, effective following Greben’s departure

Energy, Industrials and Materials

·     FTC and State Partners sue pesticide giants Syngenta and Corteva (CTVA) for using illegal pay-to-block scheme to inflate prices for farmers. Complaint alleges that manufacturers pay distributors to exclude competitors’ more affordable generic options for essential farming products

·     Vertex Energy (VTNR) cuts Q3 throughput volumes to 68K-69K bpd from 72K-74K reflect management’s decision to accelerate significant planned maintenance following recent and temporary crude supply issues

·     NOV Inc. (NOV) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Bank America

·     Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) announced the U.S. Army Research Laboratory will extend its work with the company as they test, utilize, and scale artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) capabilities across the Department of Defense (DoD). The contract is worth up to $229 million over one year.

Healthcare

·     Amylyx Pharmaceuticals (AMLX) shares rise 8%; gets FDA approval of Relyvrio for the treatment of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. Amylyx did not immediately disclose how much it will charge for the drug, to be sold as Relyvrio

·     BioMarin (MBMRN) resubmits Biologics License Application (BLA) for Valoctocogene Roxaparvovec AAV gene therapy for severe hemophilia A to the FDA

·     Charles River (CRL) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies

·     McKesson Corp. (MCK) extends pharmaceutical distribution agreement with CVS Health (CVS)

·     Rocket Pharmaceuticals (RCKT) announces positive updates from phase 1 clinical trial for RP-A501 in Danon Disease at the Heart Failure Society of America Annual Scientific Meeting 2022

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     Micron Technology (MU) 4Q adj EPS $1.45 vs est. $1.30 on revs $6.64B vs est. $6.68B; guides 1Q adj EPS $0.04 +/- $0.10 vs est. $0.64 and revs $4.25B +/- $250Mm vs est. $5.6B, says taking decisive steps to reduce supply growth including a nearly 50% wafer fab equipment cut vs last year; says cutting FY23 capital expenditures