Early Look

Tuesday, September 30, 2025

After a lackluster trading day that saw major averages finish with modest gains, U.S. futures are looking slightly lower on this final day of the month and quarter, as September remains on track for solid gains. US stock futures slip as investors weighed the likely fallout of President Trump’s latest tariff blitz with the US government on the brink of a shutdown. President Trump met with Democrats in the Oval Office on Monday, but both sides left the talks indicating they had made no progress on striking a deal that would avert a government shutdown. Lawmakers have until Wednesday at 12:01 a.m. ET to reach an agreement or else a partial government shutdown is set to begin. Stocks edged higher on Monday ahead of key payroll readings this week, while bonds rallied (yields fell) and precious metal prices (gold and silver) surged again ahead of a potential government shutdown at midnight tonight. U.S. funding is set to expire Tuesday unless Congress passes a short-term spending bill by Wednesday. If a stoppage goes forward, in addition to government job furloughs, the government is set to cease publishing economic data ahead of the BLS jobs report Friday. Market momentum remains astounding as @Barchart noted last night, “S&P 500 has now closed above its 50-day moving average for 103 consecutive trading days, the 5th longest streak in 35 years.” In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -111 points to 44,932, the Shanghai Index rose 20 points to 3,882, and the Hang Seng Index gained 232 points to 26,855. In Europe, the German DAX is flat at 23,745, while the FTSE 100 is down -9 points to 9,290.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 68.78 points, or 0.15%, to 46,316.07
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 107.09 points, or 0.48%, to 22,591.15
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 0.93 points, or 0.04% to 2,435.25

• 8:55 AM ET                  Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 9:00 AM ET                  Monthly Home Prices M/M for July
• 9:00 AM ET                  CaseShiller 20-city index for July…est. (-0.2%)
• 9:45 AM ET                  Chicago PMI for September…est. 43.0
• 10:00 AM ET                Consumer Confidence for September…est. 96.0
• 10:00 AM ET JOLTS Job Openings for August…est. 7.185M
• 12:00 PM ET                Quarterly grain report for September
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: NKE

• European Respiratory Society (ERS) Congress is taking place between 9/27-10/1

• China manufacturing activity picks up in September while official PMI still in contraction. China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index came in at 49.8, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed, compared with expectations for 49.6, according to a Reuters poll. That reading, while still in contraction, was the strongest since March.
• President Trump on Monday night announced tariffs of 10% on softwood timber and lumber alongside a 25% tariff on “certain upholstered wooden products” due to take effect on October 14, according to the White House. This was the latest set of tariffs to be announced impacting furniture industries after Trump posted to Truth Social about a flurry of tariffs on kitchen cabinets, vanities and other upholstered products on September 26 to take effect on October 1.
• The RBA left rates unchanged at 3.60% as expected in a unanimous vote and mentioned upside risks to inflation

• Home Depot (HD) and Lowe’s (LOW): President Donald Trump ordered 10% tariffs on imports of softwood timber and lumber, as well as 25% levies on kitchen cabinets and vanities and upholstered wood products, marking his latest bid to use import taxes to shore up domestic manufacturing. The tariffs are set to apply from Oct. 14, with some increases targeted from Jan. 1
• Instacart (CART) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BTIG citing “ongoing negative competitive developments.” The week started with “yet another competitive announcement” with an ongoing push into the grocery delivery category by Amazon (AMZN).
• Vail Resorts (MTN) Q4 EPS loss (-$5.08) vs. est. loss (-$4.76); Q4 revs $271.2M vs. est. $276.1M; Q4 income from operations ($-203.60M) vs. est. ($-198.2M); Q4 Total lift revenue increased 4.2% y/y to $60.4M, primarily due to an increase in pass product revenue of 4.2%; says on track to achieve two-year resource efficiency transformation plan; guides FY resort EBITDA $842-898M.

• CenterPoint Energy (CNP) has expanded its customer-driven capital investment plan to a record $65B through 2035, which represents an increase of nearly 40% compared to the capital plan introduced at its 2021 Analyst Day; raises FY25 EPS view to $1.74-$1.76.
• Energy Fuels (UUU) announces proposed $550M offering of convertible senior notes due 2031.
• Exxon Mobil (XOM) will lay off 2,000 workers globally, as the industry navigates weaker crude oil prices and a rapid consolidation, Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday citing a memo.
• Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Bank America.
• Rocket Lab (RKLB) and Synspective strike another 10-launch deal, boosting contracted missions to 21 electron launches.

• Jefferies (JEF) Q3 advisory revenue rose 10.7% to record $655.6M; Q3 equity and debt underwriting revenues climbed 20.7% and 36.3%, respectively; Q3 total investment banking net revenues jumped 20.3% to $1.14B y/y; said increasingly optimistic about near and long-term outlook.
• Rents in the top 20 U.S. markets for single-family homes are expected to rise 0.8% this year, the slowest pace since 2011 – WSJ

• Anaptys (ANAB) announces intent to separate biopharma operations from substantial royalty assets by year-end 2026; will separate into “Royalty Management Co” and as “Biopharma Co”, the two companies’ different business models.
• Metsera (MTSR) announced positive topline data from VESPER-1 and positive data from a planned interim analysis for tolerability of VESPER-3 – two Phase 2b trials of MET-097i, a first-in-class fully biased, ultra-long acting GLP-1 receptor agonist, or RA, with potential for monthly dosing.

• Google (GOOGL) agreed to pay $24.5 million to resolve Donald Trump’s claims that being banished from his YouTube channel after the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the US Capitol was illegal censorship, according to a court filing.
• Progress Software (PRGS) Q3 adj EPS $1.50 vs est. $1.30 on revs $249.795Mm vs est. $240.11Mm; guides Q4 revs $250-256Mm vs est. $251.76Mm and adj EPS $1.29-1.35 vs est. $1.32; sees FY revs $975-981Mm vs est. $967.24Mm, adj EBIT mgn 38-39% and adj EPS $5.50-5.56 vs est. $5.33.
• Wolfspeed (WOLF) successfully completes financial restructuring, emerges as financially stronger company well positioned in silicon carbide market; enters a new era with new energy and renewed commitment to innovation and research and development.